Al Qaeda today: who leads it, what its affiliates do and how big the threat is as of October 2026

The short answer. Al Qaeda today is a weakened global jihadist network: its senior leaders are marginalised, and affiliates in Yemen, the Sahel, Somalia and South Asia do most of the fighting. As of October 2026 the UN Monitoring Team names Sayf al-Adl as its de facto leader and says its ability to strike abroad "remained unclear".¹ Al-Qaeda is a violent Islamist organisation, not a description of Islam or of Muslims in general.

Key facts #

• Al-Qaeda took shape in 1988 with Osama bin Laden as its leader, and its attacks of 11 September 2001 killed 2,977 people.²³
• US forces killed bin Laden at Abbottabad, Pakistan, on 2 May 2011 (local time), and a CIA drone strike killed his successor Ayman al-Zawahiri in Kabul on 31 July 2022.⁴⁵
• The UN's 38th Monitoring Team report (10 August 2026, covering to 9 June) calls Sayf al-Adl the de facto leader. He was previously reported in Iran, which one member state denies.¹
• JNIM, the Sahel affiliate, has an estimated 7,000 to 8,000 members (approx.) and began an offensive across Mali on 25 April 2026. AQAP in Yemen has about 2,000 fighters (approx.).¹
• JNIM caused 1,274 deaths in 147 incidents in 2025, making it the second deadliest terrorist group in the world that year.⁶
• The UN calls the terrorist threat in Europe and North America "contained but persistent", driven mainly by lone actors inspired by Islamic State.¹
• The US listed al-Qaeda as a Foreign Terrorist Organization on 8 October 1999.⁷

What is al Qaeda today, and how strong is it in 2026? #

Al-Qaeda ("the base") is a Sunni Islamist organisation. Its leaders have called for driving American forces out of Muslim lands and replacing governments they call un-Islamic.² Islamism is a political ideology, and our guide to Islamism explains how it differs from Islam.

The latest independent assessment is the UN Monitoring Team's report of 10 August 2026, covering 16 December 2025 to 9 June 2026. It judges the overall terrorist threat "broadly the same" but higher in the Sahel and South Asia. It says al-Qaeda's senior leadership is marginalised and that its capability for external operations "remained unclear".¹

Al-Qaeda and Islamic State both tried to exploit the war involving Iran, which began on 28 February 2026, by urging followers to take up arms. Some al-Qaeda followers criticised its effort, and Islamic State accused it of selling out to Iran.¹ See Iran, Hezbollah and the Houthis.

Who is the al-Qaeda leader now? #

The UN calls Sayf al-Adl (sanctions entry QDi.001) the "de facto" leader, meaning it sees him in charge in practice. That is an assessment, not an announcement. It earlier reported him in Iran, though one member state "refutes the presence of any Al-Qaida personnel there". The conflict since 28 February 2026 may have put him at risk, and there is speculation that he may try to reach Afghanistan.¹

There may be a rival. Ibrahim al-Qosi, a Sudanese member of AQAP's leadership council, is described as al-Qaeda's ideological leader. Some member states see him as a contender to Sayf al-Adl, and AQAP appears less reliant on al-Adl's influence.¹

What are al-Qaeda's affiliates and how strong are they? #

Affiliates now carry most of the fighting. The strength figures are estimates, mostly from UN member states.

JNIM (Sahel). The Global Terrorism Index says JNIM was founded in 2017 from Ansar Dine, the Macina Liberation Front, al-Mourabitoun and the Saharan branch of AQIM.⁶ On 25 April 2026 it launched an offensive across Mali alongside the Front de libération de l'Azawad. The two regained parts of the north including Kidal, and Mali's defence minister died in a suicide vehicle bombing at Kati.¹ The UN says the immediate aim was to raise pressure on the authorities, not to seize Bamako.¹ A ransom of about $50 million paid in 2025 helped finance the offensive, and a share likely reached AQIM, the al-Qaeda core and AQAP.¹ See jihadism in Africa.

AQAP (Yemen). The UN reports a stronger field partnership since January between AQAP and the Houthis, with AQAP fighters present in Houthi-held areas fighting Yemen's government.¹ The Houthis are backed by Iran (see the Iran guide), and Islamic State has accused al-Qaeda of selling out to Iran.¹

Al-Shabaab (Somalia). Its then emir, Ahmed Godane, announced a merger with al-Qaeda in February 2012.⁹ Somali forces killed several senior figures between December 2025 and February 2026, and between 150 and 400 al-Shabaab fighters reportedly trained with the Houthis.¹

AQIS (South Asia). The Delhi attack was officially attributed to AQIS, the UN says, and AQIS forms the backbone of Ittihad-ul-Mujahideen Pakistan, reportedly behind a bombing in Bannu on 9 May that killed 21. AQIS leaders reportedly remain in Kabul with identity papers, suggesting close Taliban cooperation. On 28 April al-Qaeda's media arm backed the Taliban and, for the first time, the TTP against Pakistan.¹ See the Taliban and Pakistan.

Syria. Al-Qaeda's Syrian affiliate, Hurras al-Din, declared itself dissolved but persists with up to 1,000 fighters. The UN removed the Al-Nusrah Front (alias HTS) entry from its sanctions list on 27 February 2026.¹

How did al-Qaeda start, and what does it believe? #

Al-Qaeda grew out of the Afghan war against the Soviet Union. The 9/11 Commission says it was set up as a "base" for future jihad, with bin Laden clearly the leader by August 1988. The Palestinian cleric Abdullah Azzam, who helped recruit foreign volunteers, was killed on 24 November 1989.²

In August 1996 bin Laden issued a document calling on Muslims to drive American soldiers out of Saudi Arabia. On 23 February 1998 he, Zawahiri and three others signed a "World Islamic Front" statement, which claimed that America had declared war on Allah. It said killing Americans and their allies, "civilians and military", was "an individual duty for every Muslim".¹⁰²

Zawahiri's Egyptian Islamic Jihad had fought Egypt's government. By 1998 the Commission says it had "effectively merged" with al-Qaeda, and the combined focus moved to the United States.²¹¹ The Commission also says bin Laden relied heavily on the Egyptian writer Sayyid Qutb.²

The attacks followed. Truck bombs at the US embassies in Nairobi and Dar es Salaam on 7 August 1998 killed 224 people, 12 of them Americans.¹² The 11 September 2001 attacks killed 2,977.³ Jemaah Islamiyah, an Indonesian group, killed 202 people in Bali on 12 October 2002, 88 of them Australians.¹³ Hambali, of Jemaah Islamiyah, reportedly confessed that al-Qaeda sent him $30,000 for the attack, which is not independently confirmed here.¹⁴

Al Qaeda vs ISIS: what is the difference? #

Islamic State began as al-Qaeda's Iraqi branch. In April 2013 its leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, announced a merger with al-Nusra in Syria. Zawahiri ruled against it and Baghdadi refused to obey. Al-Qaeda disavowed the group in February 2014, and it declared a caliphate on 29 June 2014.¹⁵

See the Islamic State guide and the guide to the caliphate.

Muslim Brotherhood vs al-Qaeda: are they the same? #

No. They are separate organisations with opposed methods. The Brotherhood has contested elections in several countries, while al-Qaeda rejects elections and fights to overthrow governments. The scholar Gilles Kepel reports that Zawahiri attacked the Brotherhood in a 1991 book for taking part in elections.¹⁶

The link is intellectual. A 2015 UK government review said Sayyid Qutb's thinking "has inspired many terrorist organisations, including the assassins of Sadat, Al Qaida and its offshoots".¹⁷ See the Muslim Brotherhood guide and Islamist ideologues.

Which countries list al-Qaeda as a terrorist organisation? #

A dash means I found no separate entry on the list, not that the group is legal. The US also listed AQIM on 27 March 2002.⁷ The UN sanctions list held 249 individuals and 88 entities on 21 May 2026.¹ For wider tables see Islamist terrorist groups and the Global Terrorism Index.

What cuts the other way? #

• It has little support. Pew's 2011 survey found confidence in bin Laden of 34% in the Palestinian territories, 26% in Indonesia, 22% in Egypt, 13% in Jordan, 3% in Turkey and 1% in Lebanon. In Pakistan it fell from 52% in 2005 to 18% in 2010.²¹
• Muslims are its main victims. A 2009 study by West Point's Combating Terrorism Center found that "the vast majority of al-Qa'ida's victims are Muslims".²²
• Insiders have turned on it. Sayyid Imam al-Sharif, known as Dr Fadl, an Egyptian jihadist theorist, published a 2007 text criticising al-Qaeda and urging a halt to jihad in the West and in Muslim countries. It limits violence rather than rejecting it, and Zawahiri replied in March 2008.²³
• The Western threat has moved. The UN says recent plots in Europe and North America came mainly from lone actors inspired by Islamic State, not from al-Qaeda.¹
• Its affiliates are partly local. The Global Terrorism Index says socio-economic and governance problems fuel JNIM's recruitment and local support.⁶
• The numbers are soft. Strength figures are member-state estimates, and Sayf al-Adl's location is disputed.¹

Questions people ask #

Who is the leader of al-Qaeda now? #

As of October 2026 the UN Monitoring Team names Sayf al-Adl as al-Qaeda's de facto leader. He took over in practice after a CIA drone strike killed Ayman al-Zawahiri in Kabul on 31 July 2022. The UN says he was previously reported in Iran, which one member state denies, and that some states see Ibrahim al-Qosi as a rival.

Is al-Qaeda still active in 2026? #

Yes, mainly through its affiliates. The UN says JNIM launched an offensive across Mali on 25 April 2026, AQAP in Yemen remains committed to external operations, and AQIS has built networks in South Asia. The core leadership is marginalised and its ability to attack abroad is unclear. Most recent attacks in Europe and North America came from lone actors inspired by Islamic State.

Is al-Qaeda the same as ISIS? #

No. Islamic State began as al-Qaeda's Iraqi branch but split from it in 2013 and 2014, when its leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi refused Zawahiri's ruling against merging with al-Nusra in Syria. Al-Qaeda disowned it in February 2014, and Islamic State declared a caliphate that June. They now fight each other, most intensely in the Sahel, where JNIM faces Islamic State's local affiliate.

Is al-Qaeda the same as the Muslim Brotherhood? #

No. The Brotherhood is a political and social movement that has contested elections, while al-Qaeda is an armed organisation that rejects them. Zawahiri attacked the Brotherhood in 1991 for joining politics, according to the scholar Gilles Kepel. They share some intellectual roots, notably the writer Sayyid Qutb, but they are rivals, not branches of one body.

Which groups are al-Qaeda affiliates? #

The main ones in 2026 are al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) in Yemen, Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) in the Sahel, al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), al-Shabaab in Somalia and al-Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS). Hurras al-Din in Syria declared itself dissolved but persists in small numbers. Each has its own leader and its own battlefield.

Does al-Qaeda speak for Islam or for Muslims? #

No. Al-Qaeda is a militant Islamist organisation, and Islamism is a political ideology, not the religion itself. Support for bin Laden was low in the countries Pew surveyed in 2011, from 34% in the Palestinian territories to 1% in Lebanon, and a West Point study found most of its victims were Muslims. Our guide to Islamism explains the differences between Islam, Islamism and Muslims.

Related guides #

• Islamic State: al-Qaeda's former branch and bitter rival.
• The Muslim Brotherhood: the political movement jihadists attack.
• Jihadism in Africa: JNIM, al-Shabaab and the Sahel.
• The Taliban and Pakistan: where AQIS and the TTP operate.
• Iran, Hezbollah and the Houthis: the Shia network, and AQAP's Houthi link.
• Islamist terrorist groups: the full list.

Cite as: The Analyst, "Al Qaeda today: leader, affiliates and threat in 2026", Fighting Islamists, updated 13 October 2026. https://fightingislamists.com/al-qaeda.html

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