Islamist terrorism in 2026: the global picture

The short answer. Islamist terrorism is violence by groups or individuals who want a state and society run on their own reading of Islamic law. Four Islamist groups caused about 70% of the 5,582 deaths from terrorism worldwide in 2025.¹ The worst-hit places are the Sahel and Pakistan, while in the West most fatal attacks are by lone attackers, and young people are a growing share of terrorism investigations.¹

Key facts #

• Terrorism killed 5,582 people in 2,944 attacks in 2025, 28% fewer deaths than in 2024 and the lowest since 2007.¹
• Islamic State, JNIM, the Pakistani Taliban (TTP) and al-Shabaab caused 3,869 deaths in 2025, about 70% of the world total.¹
• Pakistan was the worst-hit country with 1,139 deaths, and the Sahel region accounted for more than half of all terrorism deaths worldwide.¹
• In the West, terrorism deaths rose 280% to 57 in 2025, and lone attackers carried out 93% of fatal attacks there over five years.¹
• Children and adolescents made up 42% of terror investigations in Europe and North America in 2025, a threefold rise since 2021.¹
• In the EU in 2025, 45 terrorist attacks were reported, 24 of them jihadist, and 347 of 486 arrests (71%) were jihadist suspects.²
• Britain raised its terrorism threat level to "severe" on 30 April 2026, the day after a stabbing in Golders Green, north London.³
• On 30 September 2026 a Flydubai co-pilot attacked his captain with a crash axe, and the UAE Attorney General said he "attempted to carry out a terrorist act".⁸
• On 23 October 2026 three gunmen attacked a funeral at a Greek Orthodox church in Karak, Jordan, killing at least seven people; Jordan blames "extremist takfiri ideology", arrested three men from one family on 26 October, and has not named a group.¹¹

What is Islamist terrorism? #

Islamist terrorism is terrorism carried out to advance an Islamist political aim: a state, or a society, governed by one reading of Islamic law. "Islamist" describes the politics, not the religion. Our guide to what an Islamist is explains the difference.

People also search for "Islamic terrorism". We use "Islamist" because most Muslims reject these groups, and Muslims are their main victims. "Jihadist" and "jihadism" name the violent branch: Islamist groups such as Islamic State and al-Qaeda that fight an armed jihad. See what jihad means.

"Global terrorism" simply means terrorism anywhere in the world. British law defines terrorism as the use or threat of serious violence or damage, designed to influence a government or intimidate the public, to advance a political, religious, racial or ideological cause.⁴

What do global terrorism trends show in 2026? #

Global terrorism is falling, but it is concentrating and changing shape. The Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP) counted 5,582 deaths in 2025, down 28%. Attacks fell nearly 22%. Eighty-one countries improved and 19 got worse.¹

Source: Global Terrorism Index 2026.¹

Three trends stand out. Conflict drives terrorism more than anything else: only 1% of 2025 deaths happened outside conflict-affected countries. The killing is concentrated: just under 70% of deaths were in Pakistan, Burkina Faso, Nigeria, Niger and the Democratic Republic of the Congo. And in the West, deaths rose from a low base.¹ The Global Terrorism Index guide has the country ranking and the data limits.

Where is Islamist terrorism worst? #

The Sahel and Pakistan. Pakistan ranked first in 2025, with the most deaths there since 2013, and six of the ten worst-hit countries are in sub-Saharan Africa.¹

• The Sahel. JNIM, al-Qaeda's affiliate, has an estimated 7,000 to 8,000 members. In April 2026 it attacked across Mali with Tuareg fighters and announced a blockade of Bamako.⁶ See jihadism in Africa.
• Pakistan and Afghanistan. The TTP caused 637 deaths in 2025, its most since 2011.¹ The UN says the Afghan Taliban continue to support it.⁶ Pakistan and Afghanistan have been in open conflict since February 2026.¹ See the Taliban, TTP and Pakistan.
• The Middle East. Hezbollah and Israel have been at war since 2 March 2026,⁹ and a year after the Gaza ceasefire Hamas has not disarmed.¹⁰ See Hamas and Hezbollah and Iran.
• Jordan. On 23 October 2026 gunmen killed at least seven mourners at a Christian funeral in Karak. The Jordanian government blames "extremist takfiri ideology". Police arrested three men from one family on 26 October, and the authorities cited no group affiliation.¹¹ See our Karak briefing.
• Islamic State. It carried out 488 attacks in 15 countries in 2025.¹ See Islamic State today.

Which groups carry out Islamist terrorism? #

Islamic State, JNIM, the TTP and al-Shabaab are the deadliest. Others include al-Qaeda's other branches, Boko Haram, Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis. Our list of Islamist terrorist groups shows where each operates and which of Britain, the US and Australia ban it. Their lists differ, and the al-Qaeda guide covers the older network.

Is Islamist terrorism a threat in the West? #

Yes, but a smaller and different threat from the one in war zones. The whole West had 57 terrorism deaths in 2025, against 1,139 in Pakistan alone, yet the toll rose 280% and included the Bondi Beach attack in Sydney in December 2025, in which two jihadist gunmen killed 15 people.¹

• Lone attackers. Lone actors carried out 93% of fatal Western attacks over five years and were three times more likely to succeed than groups of two or more.¹
• Teenagers. In the EU, 108 of the 347 people arrested for jihadist offences in 2025 were 18 or younger.² Yet 97% of plots involving a minor were foiled between 2022 and 2025, against 68% for adult-only plots.¹
• Europe. Jihadist attacks killed 5 of the 6 people killed in EU terrorist attacks in 2025.² See attacks in Europe.
• Britain. The Joint Terrorism Analysis Centre cited a rising Islamist and extreme right-wing threat when it raised the level.³ On 30 June 2026, 157 of the 275 people in custody for terrorism (57%) were Islamist and 80 (29%) extreme right-wing.⁵ See Islamist terrorism in the UK.
• State-linked plots. On 2 October 2026 police charged two Iranian men with plotting an attack on Manchester's Jewish community. Police say they were in contact with an overseas third party who may be in Iran. The charges are unproven.⁷ Our weekly briefing covers this and the Flydubai case.

For other countries, see Islamist terrorism in the US and Islamism in Australia.

Who are the victims of Islamist terrorism? #

Mostly Muslims. Where victims' religion could be identified, Muslims suffered 82% to 97% of terrorism deaths between 2007 and 2011, according to US government figures.¹² The worst-hit countries today, such as Pakistan, Niger and Mali, are overwhelmingly Muslim. Islamist groups also face opposition from Muslims: Pew found in 2015 that no more than 15% of people in any Muslim-majority country it polled viewed Islamic State favourably.¹³ Islamism is also not the only threat. Britain cites a rising extreme right-wing threat too.³

What could change next? #

IEP warns that "a rise in terrorism is likely".¹ Four things could drive it:

• The Pakistan–Afghanistan war (since February 2026) and the war on Iran (since 28 February 2026).¹ The UN says both al-Qaeda and Islamic State tried to exploit the Iran conflict.⁶
• JNIM's blockade of Bamako and its fight with Islamic State in the Sahel.⁶
• The closure of Syria's al-Hawl camp on 22 February 2026, after which 15,000 to 20,000 people linked to Islamic State were unaccounted for.⁶
• Faster online radicalisation of young people, which IEP says can now take weeks.¹

All our guides #

Every guide is free, sourced and updated as of 31 October 2026.

Groups #

• Islamist terrorist groups: the main groups, what they want and where they are banned.
• Islamic State (ISIS): its leader, strength and African provinces today.
• Al-Qaeda: the network and its affiliates today.
• The Muslim Brotherhood: goals, entryism and bans.
• Hamas: the movement, its war and the ceasefire.
• Hezbollah and Iran: Iran's network of armed proxies.

Regions and numbers #

• Global Terrorism Index 2026: the statistics, by country and by group.
• Jihadism in Africa: the Sahel, Nigeria, Somalia and Mozambique.
• The Taliban, TTP and Pakistan: terror in Afghanistan and Pakistan.
• Attacks in Europe: a list of Islamist attacks and the numbers.
• Islamism in Europe: ambition, entryism, population numbers and polls.
• Islamist terrorism in the UK: the British threat and response.
• Islamism in Australia: terrorism and extremism in Australia.
• Islamist terrorism in the US: jihadist plots and attacks in America.

Elections and migration #

• Migration and Islamist terrorism: attackers by immigration status, the studies and the policy changes.
• France's 2027 election: dates, polls, and each camp's plans on immigration and Islamism.
• The 2026 US midterms: immigration polls, Minnesota, Michigan and the Brotherhood designations.
• Immigration Issues: 50 sourced reports on immigration in the US, Somali communities, France and the world.

Ideas and ideology #

• Jihad: what the word means.
• The caliphate: the idea, and Hizb ut-Tahrir.
• Salafism and Wahhabism: how they relate to jihadism.
• Islamist ideologues: al-Banna, Qutb, Maududi and Qaradawi.
• Islamism: what an Islamist is, goals and warning signs.
• Sharia law: classical rules, countries and Britain.
• The Quran on war: 71 passages that jihadists cite.
• Muhammad: the historical record.
• Apologist arguments: 25 arguments and replies.
• The research file: sources on Sharia worldwide and UK Sharia councils.

Stopping it #

• How radicalisation works: the steps, online and offline.
• Countering extremism: what works.

Our weekly briefings track the news: week 41 covers the Flydubai hijack attempt and Manchester plot, and week 42 covers the European Parliament vote on Brotherhood entryism, and week 44 covers the Karak church attack in Jordan. The home page has everything else.

Questions people ask #

What is Islamist terrorism? #

Islamist terrorism is terrorism carried out to advance an Islamist political aim: a state or society governed by one reading of Islamic law. Groups such as Islamic State and al-Qaeda are jihadist, meaning they fight an armed jihad. "Islamist" describes a political ideology, not the religion of Islam, and most Muslims reject these groups.

Is global terrorism increasing? #

Not overall. The Global Terrorism Index counted 5,582 deaths in 2025, 28% fewer than in 2024 and the lowest since 2007. But deaths in the West rose 280% to 57, and the Institute for Economics and Peace warns that a rise in terrorism is likely because of new wars, including Pakistan and Afghanistan and the war on Iran.

Where does Islamist terrorism kill the most people? #

The Sahel in Africa and Pakistan. Pakistan was the worst-hit country in 2025 with 1,139 deaths, and the Sahel region accounted for more than half of all terrorism deaths worldwide. Nigeria, Niger, Burkina Faso and the Democratic Republic of the Congo complete the five countries that suffered just under 70% of the world's terrorism deaths.

Which are the deadliest Islamist terrorist groups? #

Islamic State, JNIM, the Pakistani Taliban (TTP) and al-Shabaab. Together they caused 3,869 deaths in 2025, about 70% of the world total, according to the Global Terrorism Index 2026. JNIM is al-Qaeda's branch in the Sahel, the TTP is based in Pakistan and al-Shabaab is based in Somalia.

Who are the victims of Islamic terrorism? #

Mostly Muslims. In US government statistics for 2007 to 2011, Muslims suffered between 82% and 97% of terrorism deaths where the victims' religion could be identified. The worst-hit countries today are mostly Muslim, including Pakistan, Niger and Mali. Western deaths are far fewer, but they rose to 57 in 2025.

What do we know about the Karak church attack in Jordan? #

On 23 October 2026 three gunmen attacked a funeral at a Greek Orthodox church in Karak, Jordan, and killed at least seven people, with later reports of eight or nine. Jordan's government blames "extremist takfiri ideology". Police arrested three suspects, two brothers and their brother-in-law, on 26 October 2026, and the authorities cited no group affiliation or claim, so which group, if any, was behind it is not established. See our Karak briefing for what is confirmed and what is not.

Is Islamic terrorism a threat in Britain and Europe today? #

Yes. Britain's terrorism threat level was raised to severe on 30 April 2026, meaning an attack is highly likely. In the EU, 24 of 45 terrorist attacks in 2025 were jihadist. The danger now comes mostly from lone attackers, many of them young. Extreme right-wing terrorism is also rising in Britain.

Related guides #

• Islamism: what an Islamist is, their goals, warning signs and myths.
• Sharia law: classical rules, how countries apply them and the British debate.
• Islamism in Europe: Brotherhood entryism, population numbers and polls.
• Weekly briefing, week 41: the Flydubai hijack attempt and the Manchester bomb plot.
• Weekly briefing, week 42: the European Parliament vote against Brotherhood entryism.
• Weekly briefing, week 44: the Karak church attack in Jordan, what is confirmed and what is not.
• Replies to apologist arguments: 25 common arguments and the evidence.

Cite as: The Analyst, "Islamist Terrorism 2026: Global Trends, Groups, Deaths", Fighting Islamists, updated 31 October 2026. https://fightingislamists.com/terrorism.html

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