France's 2027 election: immigration, Islamism and the polls

The short answer. France votes for a new president on 18 April 2027, with a runoff on 2 May if no one wins a majority. Emmanuel Macron cannot stand again.¹ Marine Le Pen of the Rassemblement National (RN) leads every first-round poll published in October 2026, on 31% to 37%.² An appeal court let her run in July 2026, and a final appeal is still pending.³ Immigration and Islamism are central to the right's campaigns, but most voters rank purchasing power and health higher.⁷

Key facts #

• Dates. First round 18 April 2027; second round 2 May 2027. Each candidate needs 500 sponsorships from elected officials in at least 30 departments.¹
• Le Pen. She was convicted of embezzling European Parliament funds in March 2025. On 7 July 2026 the Paris Court of Appeal upheld the conviction but cut her ban from office so that she can stand. She has appealed to the Court of Cassation.³⁴
• Polls. In seven polls taken from late September to mid-October 2026, Le Pen polled 31% to 37% in the first round. Édouard Philippe, Jean-Luc Mélenchon and Raphaël Glucksmann were each between 9% and 18%.²
• Issues. In a large Ipsos survey of April 2026, health and purchasing power were the issues voters called most decisive. Security ranked fifth and immigration eighth of 23.⁷
• Islamism. In an Ifop poll published on 16 October 2026, 80% backed banning organisations linked to the Muslim Brotherhood, and 74% backed a new offence of "Islamist entryism".⁹
• The government report. France's 2025 report on the Muslim Brotherhood linked 207 places of worship, about 7% of the total, to the Brotherhood-aligned federation.¹²

When is the 2027 French presidential election? #

The first round is on Sunday 18 April 2027 and the second round on Sunday 2 May 2027. If no candidate wins more than half the votes in the first round, the top two go to the runoff. Macron's second term ends on 13 May 2027, and the constitution bars a third consecutive term.¹

A record number of candidates is expected. To get on the ballot, each must collect 500 signatures from mayors and other elected officials, from at least 30 departments or overseas territories.¹

Who are the candidates? #

These are the main declared candidates as of 19 October 2026, according to the Wikipedia summary of official and press announcements.¹

Jordan Bardella, the RN's president, is not the party's candidate while Le Pen is eligible. Every October 2026 poll lists Le Pen as the RN candidate.²

Can Marine Le Pen run in 2027? #

Yes, for now. In March 2025 a Paris court convicted Le Pen of embezzling European Parliament funds and banned her from standing for office for five years, with immediate effect. On 7 July 2026 the Court of Appeal upheld the conviction but reduced the ban to 45 months, 30 of them suspended. That lets her stand in 2027.³

The court also fined her €100,000 and fined the party €2 million, half of it suspended. Le Pen said the same day that she would run and would appeal to the Court of Cassation, France's highest court.³⁴ Reports say the Cassation court will try to rule before the election, possibly by early April 2027, but there is no guarantee.⁵

What do the polls say? #

Le Pen leads every first-round poll. The table shows each pollster's main scenario, as compiled on Wikipedia from the pollsters' releases.²

In the second-round match-ups tested, Le Pen polled 52% to 56% against Philippe, 53.5% to 55% against Glucksmann, and 69% against Mélenchon.² Polls six months out are not forecasts, and each pollster tests different candidate lists.

How did the RN do in recent elections? #

The RN list led by Bardella won the 2024 European election in France with 31.4%.¹⁹ In the legislative election that followed, the RN and its allies won the most first-round votes (33.2%), but came third in seats after the runoff. No bloc won a majority.²⁰ In the March 2026 local elections the RN won several towns, including Carcassonne and Agde, but lost in Marseille, Toulon and Nîmes; its ally Éric Ciotti won Nice.²¹

Is immigration the top issue for French voters? #

No. In most polls purchasing power comes first, followed by health and security. Immigration usually ranks lower overall, but it is the first priority for RN and Reconquête voters.

What does each camp propose on immigration and Islamism? #

Most parties have not yet published full programmes. These positions come from candidates' statements as reported by the press.

• RN (Le Pen, Bardella). Bardella has said the first act of an RN government would be a referendum on immigration, covering priority for French citizens, limits on benefits for foreigners, ending automatic citizenship by birth on French soil, and deporting foreign offenders.¹³ After the 2025 report, he promised to ban the Muslim Brotherhood and close linked mosques.¹² Le Pen proposes a referendum on banning the Muslim headscarf in public.⁹
• Reconquête (Zemmour). Zemmour backs "remigration", which he defines as expelling foreign prisoners, foreign offenders, people without papers and foreigners out of work for about a year.⁶
• Les Républicains (Retailleau). As interior minister, Retailleau called Brotherhood "entryism" a threat to the Republic.¹⁴ His bill against "Islamist entryism" passed the Senate on 5 May 2026 and is before the National Assembly.¹⁵ He has promised referendums on immigration and criminal law.
• Renaissance (Attal). Attal proposes that Parliament set immigration quotas every two years, favouring work migration over family reunification.¹⁶ After the 2025 report his party proposed a second law against "separatism".¹²
• Socialists and Place Publique (Glucksmann). Glucksmann opposes the RN's headscarf ban, saying secularism "is not the policing of clothing".¹⁷
• La France insoumise (Mélenchon). The party opposes recent immigration laws. Its deputies sought to amend a January 2026 Assembly resolution asking the EU to list the Muslim Brotherhood as a terrorist group, which passed by 157 votes to 101. The party rejects accusations that it is soft on Islamism.¹⁸

What did France's Muslim Brotherhood report find? #

On 21 May 2025 the Interior Ministry published a declassified report, "Muslim Brothers and political Islamism in France", after a defence council chaired by Macron. Its main findings, as reported by franceinfo:¹²

• A "Brotherhood risk" exists, mainly through local influence backed by foreign money, notably from Qatar.
• 207 places of worship were linked or close to Musulmans de France, about 7% of France's 2,800 Muslim places of worship.
• No recent document showed a plan to set up an Islamic state or impose Sharia in France.
• The French Council of the Muslim Faith welcomed action against extremism but warned against suspicion falling on all Muslims.

The report is the basis for the Senate's anti-entryism bill and for several candidates' promises. See the Muslim Brotherhood guide and Islamism in Europe.

What do French people think about Islamism and secularism? #

An Ifop poll for Marianne of 9,689 adults, published on 16 October 2026, tested campaign proposals on religion.⁹

48% of Muslims polled also backed banning Brotherhood-linked groups.⁹ A separate Ifop poll of about 1,000 Muslims, published in November 2025, found 38% approved of all or part of positions it labelled "Islamist". Researchers and the French Council of the Muslim Faith disputed its definitions and sponsor.¹⁰¹¹

Did the October 2026 riots change the campaign? #

There is no evidence yet. School blockades from 28 September 2026 led to more than 5,000 arrests in a week, 85% of them minors.²² A national protest on 17 October over living costs and schools ended in clashes, looting and about 1,800 arrests.²³ The government blamed the far left and criminal groups. Official reports did not link the unrest to immigration or Islamism, and no poll has measured its effect on voting.

Questions people ask #

When is the French presidential election in 2027? #

The first round is on 18 April 2027 and the second round on 2 May 2027. A runoff is held if no candidate wins more than half the votes in the first round. Macron's term ends on 13 May 2027 and he cannot run again.

Can Marine Le Pen run in 2027? #

Yes, unless the Court of Cassation rules otherwise. The Court of Appeal upheld her embezzlement conviction on 7 July 2026 but cut her ban from office so that it no longer covers the 2027 election. She has appealed further, and a final ruling is expected before the vote.

Who is leading the polls for the 2027 French election? #

Marine Le Pen leads every first-round poll published in October 2026, with 31% to 37%. Édouard Philippe, Jean-Luc Mélenchon and Raphaël Glucksmann follow with 9% to 18% each. She also leads in every second-round pairing tested, but the vote is six months away.

Is immigration the main issue in the French election? #

Not for most voters. Purchasing power and health rank first in most polls, with immigration typically eighth or lower overall. It is the top issue for RN and Reconquête voters.

What is Islamist entryism? #

It is the term French officials use for organised efforts to gain influence over local institutions, associations and schools to advance a political reading of Islam. A Senate bill to create an offence against it passed in May 2026. 74% of French adults backed such an offence in an October 2026 Ifop poll.

Will Le Pen or Bardella be the RN candidate? #

Le Pen, as long as she remains eligible. She announced her candidacy on 7 July 2026, and every October 2026 poll tests her rather than Bardella.

Related guides #

• Immigration Issues: sourced reports on immigration in the US, Somali communities, France and the world.
• Migration and Islamist terrorism: what the data shows on attackers and asylum.
• The 2026 US midterms: immigration and Islamism in the American campaign.
• The Muslim Brotherhood: goals, entryism and bans.
• Islamism in Europe: ambition, population numbers and polls.
• Islamist terrorist attacks in Europe: the list and the numbers.

Cite as: The Analyst, "French Election 2027: Immigration, Islamism and the Polls", Fighting Islamists, updated 19 October 2026. https://fightingislamists.com/france-election-2027-islamism.html

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