The 2026 US midterms: immigration, ICE and Islamism

The short answer. The US midterm elections are on Tuesday 3 November 2026, with all 435 House seats and about a third of the Senate on the ballot.¹ Immigration is a major issue, but most polls show the cost of living ranks higher. In an ABC News, Washington Post and Ipsos poll from 9–13 October 2026, 38% approved of President Trump's handling of immigration and 61% disapproved; 56% said deportations had gone "too far".⁴ Democrats led the generic House ballot by 52% to 44% among likely voters.⁴ Islamism has entered the campaign through the Michigan Senate race and the administration's designations of Muslim Brotherhood branches.

Key facts #

• Date. Election day is 3 November 2026. In Minnesota, early voting was already under way by 6 October.³
• Immigration approval. ABC/Post/Ipsos: 38% approve and 61% disapprove of Trump on immigration. AP-NORC (July 2026): 39% approve.⁴⁵
• ICE. AP-NORC found 29% approved of how Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) enforces the law and 49% disapproved.⁵
• Immigration levels. Gallup (June 2026): 35% want immigration kept at its present level, 31% want more and 29% want less. In 2024, 55% wanted less.⁶
• Trust. In a New York Times/Siena poll in September 2026, voters trusted Democrats over Republicans on immigration by 52% to 45%.⁷
• Brotherhood. On 13 January 2026 the US designated the Lebanese Muslim Brotherhood a foreign terrorist organisation and sanctioned the Egyptian and Jordanian branches.¹⁷
• 2024 baseline. In the 2024 exit polls, 11% to 12% of voters named immigration their most important issue; those voters backed Trump by about nine to one.²¹²²

When are the 2026 midterm elections and what is at stake? #

Election day is Tuesday 3 November 2026. All 435 seats in the House of Representatives are up, along with about a third of the Senate and 36 governorships. Republicans control both chambers. Democrats need a net gain of four Senate seats for a majority.¹

Forecast models gave Democrats about a 77% chance of winning the House and about 56% for the Senate in mid-October.² These are model estimates that change daily, not polls.

What do Americans think of Trump's immigration policies? #

Approval of Trump's handling of immigration was below 40% in the major polls taken from July to October 2026.

Support for enforcement is strongly divided by party. Republicans approve of Trump on immigration by large margins: 81% in the AP-NORC poll, against 7% of Democrats.⁵

What does each party say? #

The administration says its operations target "the worst of the worst" and that about 70% of people detained have criminal convictions or pending charges. The Deportation Data Project, a research group, says about 70% of people in ICE detention have no criminal conviction.¹⁰ NPR found that Republican-aligned groups had run nearly 300 immigration ads since January 2026, linking enforcement to public safety. Some Republicans, such as Representative Maria Elvira Salazar, have said parts of the enforcement drive went too far.¹¹ Democrats are split between candidates who call for abolishing ICE and those who want limits on its tactics.¹¹

Why is Minnesota a battleground? #

Minnesota has had both a large federal immigration operation and a long-running fraud scandal, and both feature in its campaigns.

• Operation Metro Surge. About 2,000 federal agents were sent to the Minneapolis area, in what ICE called its largest operation.¹² Immigration agents killed two people during the operation, according to Sahan Journal.³ In January 2026 an ICE officer shot dead Renee Nicole Good, 37; the administration said the officer acted in self-defence, which state and local officials disputed.¹³
• The fraud cases. Governor Tim Walz did not seek a third term, citing the need to focus on a welfare fraud scandal. The federal investigation into an alleged $250 million fraud of a child nutrition programme involves some members of the Somali community.¹³
• The races. For governor, Democrat Amy Klobuchar faces Republican Lisa Demuth, who focuses on fraud under the Walz administration; Klobuchar led most polls in September. For the open Senate seat, Democrat Peggy Flanagan led Republican Michele Tafoya by under five points in every poll.³

In December 2025 Trump called Representative Ilhan Omar "garbage" and said Somalis should "go back" to Somalia. Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey said the city was proud of its Somali residents.¹⁴ An 18-year-old US-born man of Somali descent was charged in October 2026 with planning an Islamic State-inspired attack at the Mall of America; he is presumed innocent.¹⁵

How has Islamism entered the campaign? #

Michigan's Senate race. The Democratic nominee, Abdul El-Sayed, is Muslim. Trump called him a "terrorist sympathizer" on Truth Social, and Senator Mike Lee posted that Michigan voters oppose Sharia law. His Republican opponent, Mike Rogers, said on CNN that the issue was an ideology, not El-Sayed's faith. El-Sayed called the attacks a distraction from living costs.¹⁶ Claims of links to the Muslim Brotherhood made by the Washington Times are disputed by his campaign.¹⁶

The Brotherhood designations. After an executive order of 24 November 2025, the State Department designated the Lebanese Muslim Brotherhood a Foreign Terrorist Organization on 13 January 2026, and the Treasury sanctioned the Egyptian and Jordanian branches for supporting Hamas.¹⁷ Florida's governor also tried to label the Brotherhood and the Council on American-Islamic Relations as terrorist groups; a federal judge blocked the order in March 2026.¹⁸ See Islamist terrorism in the US and the Muslim Brotherhood.

Vetting. After an Afghan evacuee shot two National Guard members in Washington on 26 November 2025, the administration paused asylum decisions and immigration benefits for people from travel-ban countries. It lifted the blanket asylum pause in March 2026 for screened applicants from countries it does not class as high-risk.¹⁹ A federal court struck down four of the benefit pauses in June 2026; the government can appeal.²⁰ For the data on attackers and immigration status, see migration and Islamist terrorism.

No 2026 Gallup, Pew or AP-NORC poll asking about Islamist extremism was found.

How did immigration shape the 2024 election? #

Immigration was the fourth issue in the 2024 exit polls, behind democracy, the economy and abortion.

Questions people ask #

When are the 2026 midterm elections? #

Election day is Tuesday 3 November 2026. All 435 House seats, about a third of the Senate and 36 governorships are on the ballot. Early voting started weeks before; in Minnesota it was under way by 6 October.

What is Trump's approval rating on immigration? #

About 38% to 39% in October 2026 and July 2026 polls. ABC News, the Washington Post and Ipsos found 38% approved and 61% disapproved. AP-NORC found 39% approved in July. Republicans approve strongly and Democrats overwhelmingly disapprove.

Is immigration the top issue in the 2026 midterms? #

No. Most coverage and polls put the cost of living first. Immigration is a leading issue for Republican voters, and voters split on which party they trust more on it, with Democrats ahead by 52% to 45% in one September poll.

Why is Minnesota important in the 2026 midterms? #

It has open races for governor and Senate after a large federal immigration operation in Minneapolis, two deaths during that operation, and a welfare fraud scandal that led Governor Walz not to seek re-election. Democrats led the main races in September polls.

What happened with Abdul El-Sayed and Sharia law claims? #

El-Sayed, the Democratic Senate nominee in Michigan, is Muslim. Trump called him a "terrorist sympathizer" and Senator Mike Lee raised Sharia law. His Republican opponent said his concern was an ideology, not El-Sayed's faith. El-Sayed called the attacks a distraction.

Did the US designate the Muslim Brotherhood as a terrorist group? #

Partly. On 13 January 2026 the State Department designated the Lebanese Muslim Brotherhood a foreign terrorist organisation, and the Treasury sanctioned the Egyptian and Jordanian branches for supporting Hamas. The movement as a whole has not been designated.

Related guides #

• Immigration Issues: sourced reports on immigration in the US, Somali communities, France and the world.
• France's 2027 election: immigration and Islamism in the French campaign.
• Migration and Islamist terrorism: attackers' immigration status in Europe and the US.
• Islamist terrorism in the US: the record since 9/11.
• The Muslim Brotherhood: goals, entryism and bans.

Cite as: The Analyst, "US Midterms 2026: Immigration, ICE and Islamism Issues", Fighting Islamists, updated 19 October 2026. https://fightingislamists.com/us-midterms-2026-immigration-islamism.html

Next: About →